The Impact of a US Withdrawal from Syria

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The announcement by President Donald Trump to withdraw US troops from Syria was met with surprise and astonishment by US allies. Israel in particular was caught off-guard by this sudden decision by Trump, which could have major implications for the security of Israel.

Turkey is poised to use the opportunity of a US withdrawal to attack the Kurds, an ally of the US against ISIS. Commentators on the Middle East and allies of the US are skeptical about the wisdom of such a decision.

The resurgence of ISIS and other radical groups in Syria after the withdrawal of US troops is a real possibility. How will this sudden move by Pres. Trump impact Israel in the short and medium term?

In the short term, Israel will continue with its air campaign against Iranian expansionism and the stockpiling of advanced weapons by Hizbullah in Syria. In the medium term, after the completion of a US withdrawal, Israel should be concerned about further radicalization of Syria and the effects it will have on the security on the northern border.

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria could lead to 3 scenarios:

  1. ISIS and their radical allies could regroup and start a guerilla war, in the form of suicide bombings and the bombing of public places.
  2. Iran, Hizbullah and their proxies could interpret the US withdrawal as an opportunity to launch attacks against Israel.
  3. Syria could become another Iraq – a destabilized country on the borders of Israel.

A destabilized Middle East will most certainly affect the stability of the world. In an already dangerous world, cool heads are needed.

Let us not forget a fourth and most important scenario. Are the developments in Syria a precursor of the Gog, Magog war, as described in Ezekiel 38 and 39.

Only time will tell.